Holder Regime — On-Chain State Label

Also known as: Regime engine, Wallet flow regime, BTC holder regime

A daily label (accumulation, distribution, mixed, etc.) built from SOPR, cohorts, RHODL, VDD, and MVRV — deterministic rules, not AI.

What "regime" means here

Holder regime is Exum's single headline for BTC on-chain behavior today. Rules look at:

SOPR bands (profit vs loss spending)
Short-term vs long-term holder SOPR
RHODL heat
VDD (old coin activity)
MVRV valuation band

The engine picks the label that best fits the combination and assigns confidence (high / medium / low).

Not a signal

Regime does not mean "buy" or "sell."
It can stay the same for many days — that is normal.
A regime change is worth attention; open Why this regime and the metric cards to see what flipped.

Pro: regime watch

Regime watch runs a daily job. If the stored regime changes, Exum can create an alert (when Smart Alerts are enabled for your plan).

See the full desk: Holder behavior.

Frequently asked

What regimes exist?

Labels like accumulation, distribution, profit taking, capitulation-style stress, and mixed when inputs conflict. Exact names appear in the UI for the current build.

Why does confidence say Low?

Metrics point different ways (e.g. SOPR bullish but VDD hot). Low confidence means treat the headline as weak.